Good Question

If the Red Sox had one 2 year 25 million dollar contract to give out, who would you give it to, Papelbon or Ortiz.

I'm really torn up by this because these are 2 positions I think you can get someone off the street and they can do. Ortiz obviously has had a huge resurgence this year after having some OK years the passed couple of them, and Papelbon has the numbers, but if you watch the Sox nothing really instills confidence.

I'm not really ready to say that Daniel Bard is the future closer, because I don't think he can handle it. Last year he was a disaster when it came to closing situations and Papelbon has converted 20 of 21 saves this year. If it's not broke, why fix it.

With Ortiz he is obviously older, he could bat .230 next year and no one would really be surprised, but he does have hero status here in Boston. I really do think he is a great influence on this team in the locker room. However, he is a hell of a hitter, has worked on hitting leftys and is no longer a HR or bust guy.

At the end of the day I will stick with a strong bullpen and lock up Papelbon because it's pretty much a game over once you get to the 8th when it goes Bard/ Papelbon. I hate to see Ortiz go, but I think he can be easily replaced if need be.

Papelbon Suspended 3 Games... Eventually

Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon has been suspended for three games and fined an undisclosed amount in the aftermath of Saturday's ejection by plate umpire Tony Randazzo. Not really all that shocking, since he did kind of bump the umpire. The league has to suspended him for that, so I am fine with it. Saying that, this umpire was asking for it. Papelbon was frustrated by his strike zone, and was showing it on the mound, but this umpire made the situation worse when he walked out from behind the plate and called him out. There is no reason for that, and he should know better then to antagonize the situation.

Papelbon is appealing the suspension, but he won't win. He'll just wait till they are playing some shitty team before dropping it.

Rangers 26, Red Sox 11

All the anticipation for Opening Day and then the Rangers outscore the Sox 26-11 in three games. Don't panic yet, though. The Sox can still win those magical 100 games, if that's what you care about. They'd just have to go 100-59 in the remaining 159 games. And that's certainly possible.

Had the Sox done well this weekend, I would have been my wet blanket self, and pleaded for everyone to settle down, as it's only April. Well it is only April, and so therefore I'm not too worried about what we saw in Texas.

Jon Lester is a perennial slow starter. From 2008 to 2010, he went 3-5 in April, with a 4.58 ERA. So we shouldn't worry about his struggles on Friday.

Carl Crawford is going to improve. He broke out a bit on Sunday, after going hitless in the first two games, and being demoted in the lineup.

Clay Buchholz allowed 4 runs off 4 homers. Apart from those occasional mistakes he was spot on. It's not as if he was allowing 4 or 5 hits in an inning, and being ripped apart by the Rangers' batters. He made some big mistakes, but not many, and give Texas some credit for capitalizing.

And there were some positives this weekend. Adrian Gonzalez has settled right in. 5 for 9 over the weekend with a double and 3 RBI. I feel a burst of homeruns coming from him.

And there doesn't seem to be the annual Ortiz slump in April. Two homeruns already. And when he pulled the ball, he hit it hard enough to get it through the shifted infield. That's a very good sign.

Now to the bad news. John Lackey looked awful the second time through the lineup. Everyone's hoping he improves on his 2010 performance, but none of us (my pessimistic self included) considered that he might get worse.

And the bullpen needs to be "sorted out," to put it mildly. I don't put much stock in Papelbon's struggles on Sunday, as it was a non-save situation after he'd been sitting all weekend. I don't think he even warmed up once. The other pieces to the bullpen puzzle will take some time and some headaches to fall in place.

One thing I hope you all learned this weekend is how important pitching is. The starting pitcher is literally the ONLY player who can singlehandedly lose a game for his team. They're also capable of doing the most to help his team win. Lackey lost Saturday's game, pretty much on his own. And on Sunday, Matt Harrison's 7 innings did more to help Texas win than any of their homerun hitters.

So buck up, there are 159 games left. I mean, Baltimore's in first place. It's not yet time to take things so seriously.

Red Sox at Cleveland for three, starting on Tuesday.

-The Commodore

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (Pitching)

100 wins. All I keep hearing about is 100 wins. It's something the Red Sox haven't done since 1946. But is that really the achievement to long for? The Sox lost the 1946 World Series. And there are some parallels to that 1946 team, which led the Majors in offense, scoring half a run per game more than anyone else, but were 9th of 16 teams in runs allowed. They lost the World Series to St. Louis, the team that allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

Then, as now, pitching wins. And that's where I'll start this preview. Because even though a great offense can win 100 regular season games, it's pitching that wins 11 postseason games.

The Sox rotation looks the same as last year. And it has just as many question marks. We can pretty much bank on Jon Lester to have an ERA below 3.50, and 16 to 20 wins. He's been the rock of the rotation, and one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons.

Then there's Buchholz. Call me negative, but him repeating his 2010 feats is not guaranteed. We've all sort of assumed he will once again register an ERA around 2.50 and win close to 20 games. Maybe he will. Even 17 wins and a 3.00 ERA would be excellent. But he's 26. He has one great season under his belt. He's still a question mark. Even though he's overshadowed by much larger question marks in the rotation.

15-10 record. 3.96 ERA. 23 homeruns. That's what Josh Beckett averages every 162 games in his career. Even I was a little stunned to see that. It's so below average. With the Red Sox, he's been 71-40 with a 4.29 ERA. And since 2008, he's been atrocious. It's gotten to the point that Beckett isn't much of a question mark anymore. He's a bad pitcher until proven otherwise.

Among qualifying pitchers, John Lackey had the 73rd lowest ERA in baseball last year. He did eat innings, but that's pretty much it. You can live with him as a #4 starter, but if Beckett doesn't have a good year, he's your #3. And if Buchholz falters, he's your #2. And that's an alarming thought.

Then there's Daisuke. If any other pitcher won 18 games their sophomore season, then was repeatedly injured, struggled when healthy, and averaged 96 walks per full season, we'd be talking about sending him to Pawtucket. So what makes Daisuke so special? I just don't have a good feeling about Daisuke in 2011. Even when healthy, even when at his best, he doesn't go deep into games. His 18 win season was coupled with 167.2 innings pitched. 90 pitchers managed to surpass that mark in 2010.

Sorry folks, but the rotation is too vulnerable, and too dependent on all the stars aligning. Actually, it's dependant on time travel. If Buchholz is the same as he was in 2010, if Beckett is the same as he was in 2007, if Daisuke is the same as 2008, if Lackey is the same as he was in 2007 and in another city....

But it's 2011.

Thankfully, the bullpen looks quite a bit better than last year. The Sox blew the 4th most saves in baseball last year. And with shaky starting pitching, the bullpen will be worked hard in 2011.

Papelbon is still the closer. And even though he's not as elite as he used to be, he's still good enough. It'd be tough to find an improvement over him, but it won't be hard to find a replacement.

Daniel Bard has impressed as a set-up man, with a 1.11 WHIP in 124 career relief innings. Bard and Papelbon represent a quality 8th and 9th inning tandem. But they can't be overworked. They need help.

Bobby Jenks is a possible option. That's what the Sox did to this bullpen: added options. They signed a number of guys, hoping that one or two would work out as reliable set-up men. In the dice game that is relief pitching, this is a viable strategy to build a quality bullpen.

But Jenks is coming off a bad year. And he's gotten progressively worse since 2007. You never know with relievers, but it's hard to imagine that trend changing.

I'm much more optimistic about Dan Wheeler, who's pitched with success in the AL East. He's 33, but has 530 appearances under his belt. He'll wind up as the secondary set-up guy alongside Bard.

Wakefield will be a mop up man and spot starter. Doubront will be used against lefties.

The rest of the bullpen will be a revolving door of arms. Maybe one will be reliable enough to be a 6th inning man, or the type of guy that's brought in when the Sox are down 2 runs in the 7th.

Overrall, the bullpen isn't great, but it's no longer a liability. The rotation, however, is very suspect. So much needs to happen for it to work. And so much can go wrong for it to fail. I don't see Beckett winning more than 15 games. I don't see Daisuke throwing more than 180 innings. I see Buchholz having a good-not-great year. I don't see Lackey doing much better than he did in 2010.

But the offense should be able to make up for these shortcomings. At least in the regular season.

-The Commodore

The Red Sox' Pitchers

The Sox' owners heard the outcry from the masses, and acquired some serious, marquee talent last week. The finally went out and got guys you've heard of, guys that will appear on fantasy teams, true stars. They added a slugging first baseman, and a fleet-footed outfielder. These are likely the biggest off-season acquisitions since the Sox traded for Josh Beckett in November of '05.

Speaking of Beckett, I want to talk about pitching. The Red Sox offense has improved tremendously, and should be more consistent, more exciting, and will contend to lead the Majors in runs scored. And while I love the acquisitions, I can't quite jump on the bandwagon that's been fully loaded the last week.

What about pitching?

Well at the top, the Sox have Buchholz and Lester. Our most reliable pitchers are 25 and 26, respectively. Our rocks are 25 and 26. The hopes of the rotation rest on guys who are 25 and 26.

Buchholz was 2nd in the AL in ERA. He won 17 games, and emerged as an All-Star talent. But he also goes into 2011 with only one good year on his track record. I'm not predicting doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I don't think we can just assume he'll have a similarly outstanding year. We've all sort of taken for granted that he will.

Lester also esteemed himself, with 19 wins and a 3.25 ERA. His numbers don't pop as much as Buchholz's, but he's got a fuller history of success. In each of the last 3 seasons, his ERA has been below 3.50, he's won at least 15 games, and pitched at least 200 innings. He's as solid a #2 starter as you'll find.



Then there's John Lackey, whose numbers are more than respectable for a #5 guy. He led the Sox in innings. I'm fine with him in the #5 spot. So long as he's the ONLY #5 pitcher on this team. And that's the problem. We really have no idea what to expect from Beckett and Daisuke. They too might perform like #5 pitchers.

Apart from 2007, when he vied for the Cy Young, Beckett has been disastrous for the Sox. He outright sucked in 2006 and 2008. He was off-and-on in 2009, spinning gems one day, then dropping turds 4 days later. And in 2010, one could argue that he was the worst regular starting pitcher in baseball.

"He can't possibly be that bad again." That's the argument I keep hearing about Beckett. And that may be true. But his track record suggests that he won't be very good, either. And frankly, he CAN be that bad again.

Then there's Matsuzaka. Who is this guy? Is there anything about him that's predictable or regular? Will he be healthy? Does the team know if he'll be healthy? Does he even keep in touch with the team about his off-season training?



Since 2008, when he was brilliant, he's been a mess. When he is healthy, he walks the world, and needs 120 pitches to survive 6 innings of work. Perhaps he'll redeem himself in 2011. But I'm afraid the best I see him being is a middle of the road #3 guy. Even when he is on his game, his short outings tax the bullpen far too much.

Speaking of the bullpen, the Sox have one of the leakiest in the game. They blew 22 Saves last year, the 4th most in baseball. Think about that. 22 times, the Sox had a lead late in a game, and then lost it. And that starts with Papelbon, who set a career high in Blown Saves last year, with 8. He also set a career high in ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.27). He's not a bad closer, but he's not Mariano Jr. And there are a number of closers that are on his level.



At least he and Bard are good. After that, there's nothing but torture.

Building a bullpen is hard to do. It can also be very easy. Most of it seems to be dumb luck. There are very few "premium" middle-relievers in this world. Those that excel become closers. Most have 2 or 3 very good years, then get figured out. In other words, Mike Timlin is not walking through that door.



The best thing to do is what the Sox used to try with their rotation: sign 3 to 5 has-beens/never-was-its, and hope that 1 or 2 don't suck.

In a rare bit of optimism, I think the offense will help the bullpen by putting it in fewer crucial situations. So there will be less opportunities for it to cost the Sox games.

I also don't want to come off as too negative. With the lineup the Sox have, and the few good pitchers they have, there's no reason for them to not make the playoffs. They should win 93 to 98 games, which is very good. And certainly an improvement over last year. They should whip teams like Baltimore, which they failed to do in 2010.

Unfortunately, pitching wins in the playoffs. The Giants and Rangers showed that. The Sox showed it in '07 and '04. And I don't think the Sox have the arms to get the job done in October and November. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Beckett and Daisuke will return to '07 and '08 form, respectively. Maybe someone unexpected will emerge as a hero in the postseason, much like Derek Lowe did in 2004. But I've never been one to be hopeful for hope's sake. I'm Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh.



-The Commodore