Let's Get Bedarded in Here

How long before we start seeing "Can't Spell Erik Without a 'K'" T-shirts?

After the Rich Harden deal fell apart due to concerns over his health, the Sox went after another Canadian born pitcher. As part of a three team deal, they acquired Erik Bedard. They dealt C Tim Federowicz, RHP Juan Rodriguez and RHP Stephen Fife to the Dodgers in exchange for minor leaguers OF Trayvon Robinson and OF Chih-Hsien Chiang. The Sox then sent Robinson and Chiang to Seattle for Bedard. Righty Josh Fields was packaged along with Bedard.

Fields was drafted by Seattle with the 20th overall pick of the 2008 draft. He's a 25 year old reliever just promoted from AA to AAA Tacoma.

Bedard is obviously the main event of the deal. The Sox need pitching to fill out their rotation. Buchholz was just placed on the 60 Day DL and his recovery has hit some roadblocks.

Bedard's been plagued by injury problems the past few years. He hasn't tossed a full season of work since 2007. He hasn't even thrown 100+ innings since 2007. He missed the entire 2010 season. And he was sidelines for a month with a sprained left knee. He made his return to Seattle's rotation Friday night, struggling through 1.1 innings and allowing 5 runs.

However, when healthy, he is a legitimate frontline starter. On the season, he has a 4-7 record (remember, this is Seattle, who have saddled Felix Hernandez with a 9-9 record) and a 3.45 ERA. But those numbers don't tell the whole story. He struggled in April, starting the season 0-4 with a 7.71 ERA. Since April 27th, he's gone 4-3 with a 2.34 ERA. That ERA includes his 1.1 inning, 5 run debacle on Friday.

Nine of his last 11 starts have been Quality Starts.

This is a good move. Bedard may end of on the DL by early September, but if he doesn't... Well, he's not just an upgrade over Andrew Miller. He solidifies the top of the Red Sox rotation.

His first start is slated to be Friday night against the Yankees. Welcome to Boston, Mr. Bedard.

-The Commodore

Breaking News: Clay Buchholz Out With Stress Fracture In Back

Red Sox pitcher Clay Buchholz has a stress fracture in his lower back and will most likely miss the rest of the season, according to a report in Comcast Sports New England.

I knew it, so this also spotlights the Bedard trade. So this means come playoff time we are going to need to go Beckett, Lester, then Bedard/ Lackey... I guess I'm comfortable enough with that. Bedard is pretty good and Lackey could (probably not) turn it around.

There is always a chance that the Sox make an August waiver move too, but I don't see that really happening, especially if our offense keeps carrying us the way it has.

More Worry For Buchholz

Clay Buchholz will visit another specialist for his injured back and will not throw off a mound until at least after that meeting. The Red Sox are saying visiting the specialist is just precautionary and not a setback. I said in a post earlier in the week that while the Red Sox seemed to be excited he was able to throw a 30 pitch bullpen session, his comments made me nervous. He said he was still feeling pain in his back, but it was manageable. My question is how much pain would he feel when he was pitching at 100%?

Maybe it is precautionary, but this makes me very nervous. The Red Sox could be having him go see a specialist, so they can get a feel if they need to make a serious move before the trade deadline. Bottom line is that when the playoffs roll around the Red Sox are going to need more then just Lester and Beckett if they are going to win it all, and if they have to rely on the Wake, Lackey, or Miller/Aceves for the #3 spot I will be no where near as confident.

Buchholz Progressing

Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz, on the disabled list since mid-June due to a muscle strain in his lower back, threw 30 pitches off a bullpen mound -- his first session off a mound since the end of June in Philadelphia -- and proclaimed the session to represent a significant marker in his progress back to the rotation. Buchholz threw a "short box" session, in which the catcher sits in front of home plate, and suggested that he got through the session with only minor soreness that he was quickly able to manage.

"This is I think the biggest step in the right direction so far in this process," said Buchholz. "There was still a little soreness coming off after I threw. Sat down for about 10 minutes, did a couple stretches and it felt better (WEEI)."

As well as the Red Sox are playing they are going to need Buchholz if they are going to have any chance of winning it all. Beckett and Lester can get them so far, but in the playoffs having a 3rd good pitcher is huge. I have to admit this update does not make me overly optimistic. Why is he still having soreness? I mean he only threw 30 pitches, and he is still feeling soreness in his back. That can't be a good sign. What happens when he pitches in a game and pushes it? Or if he is in a game and it's raining and it tightens? Sorry, but this doesn't sound good and I am starting to get worried. I hope the Sox are right and this is a step in the right direction, but it doesn't sound all that good to me.

Buchholz's Back Not Getting Better

Red Sox starter Clay Buchholz will fly to North Carolina this week for a consolation with back specialist Dr. Craig Brigham. The Red Sox had hoped that the time off would make it better, but every time he starts to workout and pitch it comes back. This could be really bad news for the Sox, as we saw what this type of injury did to Beckett last year. Buchholz is not a guy the Sox can afford to lose for the entire season, so I am hoping they can figure this out. My best guess is that he won't be back until early August. That means the Sox are really going to have to continue to rely on Andrew Miller and the Wake to get them through most of the season, unless of course the Wake's back goes out as well.

Buchholz/Lowrie Injury Update

As DP stated earlier the Sox won last night, but it came with some cost. Buchholz and Lowrie had to leave the game. Here is the latest on both...

Buchholz left after the fifth inning due to a stiff lower back. This has been bothering him for awhile, and if you have ever pulled a muscle there you know it takes forever for it to go away. The good news is that I think he won't have to go on the DL. The Sox have already stated that they are bringing up Andrew Miller, and that he will start Monday. They also have 2 days off in a 5 day span. That's huge, and means the Sox can't wait awhile, and see how he responds to treatment. That could be enough to keep him from a stint on the DL.

Lowrie meanwhile I think is going to need to go on the DL. His left shoulder has been bothering him for nearly 3 weeks, since his collision with Crawford. It is really causing him to slump. In his last 10 games since the collision he is batting .163, while Scutaro has been playing well. I think it is time to sit Lowrie down for awhile call up someone like Drew Sutton, and I think that is what they are going to do as he was pulled from the PawSox game yesterday. Lowrie has been great, but he needs to be healthy, and with the way this lineup is hitting the Sox can deal with losing him for a couple weeks.

Red Sox 9 Angels 5

Red Sox wore Weaver down, something no team had been able to do all season. I was at the game last night, and one of the best at bats I have ever seen was Dustin Pedroia fouling off 9 pitches in a 13 pitch at bat. At the end of the at bat Pedroia had put the Sox in the lead with a 2 run single. It's hard to explain how awesome it was, but you could just see Weaver lose all the gas he had left in the arm, and at that point you just knew the Red Sox had it.

Buchholz pitched OK, not great he went 6 innings allowing only 2 runs, but also let up 8 hits and only had 2 Ks. He seemed like he was still having problems keeping the ball down, and never really looked all that confident. Still, it was a quality start and I'll take it since I really didn't give the Red Sox much of a chance to win this game.

Boston put the game away in the 7th inning scoring 6 runs. Two of them coming off an Ortiz HR, which is good because he has lacked his power stroke lately. Boston is getting on a little bit of a roll now. They have beaten two of the ALs top pitchers in the last 2 days (Weaver, Hernandez), and are just two games away from .500. I know that's odd to say, but with how bad they had been playing you have to look at the positives.

Red Sox Sweep Angels

The Sox are only one game below .500 and they owe it all to the Angels. Remember last year? The Sox owned Anaheim, going 9-1 against them. So while I'm happy the Sox are now only 3.5 behind the Yankees, and have a record that's not too shameful, beating the Angels is old news.

Lackey beating the Angels doesn't impress me. But Daisuke beating them does. Then again, Daisuke's problem has been consistency, and two great starts don't demonstrate that a consistency problem has been solved. I'm not aboard the Daisuke bandwagon yet. And won't be for some time.

One thing the Sox have thoroughly demonstrated with this 8-1 run, is that pitching wins. Even if half the lineup is slumping, even if the bullpen is shaky, good starting pitching makes winning easy. Crawford is still hitting below his weight, Lowrie's the only guy hitting over .300, and it seems like a new middle-reliever struggles in every game. But the wins keep coming so long as the starts are good.

To continue this roll, Buchholz needs to step up. He's lost his confidence, he's been obsessing with baserunners, and allowing homeruns. The offensively challenged (3rd fewest runs scored in baseball) Orioles present Buchholz with an opportunity to re-establish his place in this rotation. He's the only starter yet to register a Quality Start.

He faces 3-1 Zach Britton Tuesday night in Baltimore. And yes, Britton is a lefty.

-The Commodore

5 Sox, 3 As

Jed Lowrie Is hitting homeruns and taking names. Yesterdays victim was Gio Gonzalez who has been outstanding so far this season. Gio came into the game throwing 17 scoreless innings, but that all changed with the homer from Lowrie and another homer from Kevin Youkilis.

Clay Buchholz pitched an alright game he went 5.1 innings, 4 walks and 2ks. This was a good win and decent offense figuring they were shut out the game before.

Pretty boring game actually

Tonight we got the Angels and Beckett vs rookie Tyler Chatwood.

Sox Starting to Click

Winning becomes so easy when the starting pitcher does well. The pressure eases off the offense. The bullpen has less responsibility. All the hitters have to do is compile a few consecutive hits. It's really simple.

Josh Beckett looks pretty good. I'm still not sold on him yet, as he had brilliant starts in '09 and still finished with a decent but disappointing 3.86 ERA. So far, though, he's been excellent. His fastball is up to 95, and he's challenging hitters with it. The changeup is fooling batters, and the curveball is biting. He's getting strikeouts, and when hitters make contact, they get under or over the ball. That leads to pop ups and ground outs. It's once again fun to watch him pitch.

Lester had another Quality Start on Sunday. He was aided by some double plays, as he scattered 3 walks and 6 hits. He didn't give up the big hit though. It was his first win of the season, but his third straight Quality Start.

Buchholz has me worried. We all assumed that this 26 year old with 25 good starts under his belt was going to be a sure thing for 17-20 wins and an ERA under 3.00. We forgot who he was in '09 and '08. His confidence rises and falls with each start, and right now he's on a downswing.

The offense is still gradually getting better. I'm sick of seeing Crawford leading off games though. Lowrie is red hot and should be at leadoff until either he cools, or Crawford gets his average over .150.

It's funny/sad that taking 2 games from Toronto has become worthy of celebration.

Another tough lefty (how much do we miss Victor Martinez?) faces the Sox as Ricky Romero opposes Daisuke Matsuzaka at 11 AM today.

-The Commodore

Red Sox Give Buchholz 4 Year Deal

"According to multiple Major League Baseball sources, the Red Sox have agreed to a four-year, $29.945 million extension with pitcher Clay Buchholz that will take effect in 2012. The extension includes two club options, one for $13 million in 2016, another for $13.5 million in 2017. The 26-year-old wouldn't have been eligible for free agency until after the 2014 season; with the deal, he will remain with the Sox through at least 2015, with the options covering the 2016 and 2017 campaigns (WEEI)."

Very similar contract to what Jon Lester got, though I don't think Buchholz is as good. Still, you have a young pitcher that has a lot of talent and those kind of guys don't grow on threes. I am not sure he is will ever be a #2 pitcher, but he is definitely no worse then a solid 3. There are a lot of scouts that say Buchholz was one of the luckiest pitchers last year when he went 17-7 with a 2.33 ERA, although I agree that I doubt we will ever see him put up those kind of numbers I do think he can be a solid 15 game winner with an ERA around 3.50 year in and year out. He has had a tough start to this season, but people need to remember it's early and he had to go against two great lineups in the Rangers and Yankees.

Sox Take 2 from Yankees

Taking 2 of 3 from New York will make you forget about an 0-6 start. The Sox finally got some hitting, and finally got some pitching. It wasn't the prettiest series win, but I think we'll all take the W's.

John Lackey sucks. We have to come to terms with that. He's a #5 at best. Hopefully, he'll be the only #5 pitcher in this rotation. He's not going to recapture the form he had with the Angels 4 years ago.

I'm worried about Buchholz. He looked so much like his 2009 self on Saturday. He obsessively threw to 1st base. His body language wasn't confident. He's not throwing strikes. And he's struggling the second time through the lineup. It might just be a temporary thing. But he's allowed 5 homers and 8 earned runs already. In 2010, he didn't allow his 5th homerun until July.

The bullpen also looks ugly. I'm getting flashbacks of 2003, when Todd Jones, Brandon Lyon, and Ramiro Mendoza infested the Red Sox pen.

Josh Beckett was simply magical last night. 8 innings, 10 strikeouts, 1 walk, only 103 pitches needed. He retired the last 14 batters he faced. His fastball had bite, his curve was snapping, and he was confident in what he was doing.

The question with Beckett is consistency. We've seen sporadic brilliance like this before. We need to see a steady string of 7+ inning, 2-3 run starts, though. No more of the 5 inning, 4 run clunkers that we've seen him throw so many times. We'll learn a lot from the quality of his next start.

Offensively, it's still kind of ugly. The Sox scored 4 runs from 12 hits and 8 walks last night. That's not good. Pedroia's upped his average to .400, Gonzalez is hitting, and Ortiz is getting by. But there's still some serious slumping in this lineup. They'll snap out of it, though. Crawford hit a few balls hard, just not in the right place.

Sox host the 1-8 Rays starting tonight. Daisuke faces 24 year old Jeremy Hellickson.

-The Commodore

Rangers 26, Red Sox 11

All the anticipation for Opening Day and then the Rangers outscore the Sox 26-11 in three games. Don't panic yet, though. The Sox can still win those magical 100 games, if that's what you care about. They'd just have to go 100-59 in the remaining 159 games. And that's certainly possible.

Had the Sox done well this weekend, I would have been my wet blanket self, and pleaded for everyone to settle down, as it's only April. Well it is only April, and so therefore I'm not too worried about what we saw in Texas.

Jon Lester is a perennial slow starter. From 2008 to 2010, he went 3-5 in April, with a 4.58 ERA. So we shouldn't worry about his struggles on Friday.

Carl Crawford is going to improve. He broke out a bit on Sunday, after going hitless in the first two games, and being demoted in the lineup.

Clay Buchholz allowed 4 runs off 4 homers. Apart from those occasional mistakes he was spot on. It's not as if he was allowing 4 or 5 hits in an inning, and being ripped apart by the Rangers' batters. He made some big mistakes, but not many, and give Texas some credit for capitalizing.

And there were some positives this weekend. Adrian Gonzalez has settled right in. 5 for 9 over the weekend with a double and 3 RBI. I feel a burst of homeruns coming from him.

And there doesn't seem to be the annual Ortiz slump in April. Two homeruns already. And when he pulled the ball, he hit it hard enough to get it through the shifted infield. That's a very good sign.

Now to the bad news. John Lackey looked awful the second time through the lineup. Everyone's hoping he improves on his 2010 performance, but none of us (my pessimistic self included) considered that he might get worse.

And the bullpen needs to be "sorted out," to put it mildly. I don't put much stock in Papelbon's struggles on Sunday, as it was a non-save situation after he'd been sitting all weekend. I don't think he even warmed up once. The other pieces to the bullpen puzzle will take some time and some headaches to fall in place.

One thing I hope you all learned this weekend is how important pitching is. The starting pitcher is literally the ONLY player who can singlehandedly lose a game for his team. They're also capable of doing the most to help his team win. Lackey lost Saturday's game, pretty much on his own. And on Sunday, Matt Harrison's 7 innings did more to help Texas win than any of their homerun hitters.

So buck up, there are 159 games left. I mean, Baltimore's in first place. It's not yet time to take things so seriously.

Red Sox at Cleveland for three, starting on Tuesday.

-The Commodore

MLB Preview: Boston Red Sox (Pitching)

100 wins. All I keep hearing about is 100 wins. It's something the Red Sox haven't done since 1946. But is that really the achievement to long for? The Sox lost the 1946 World Series. And there are some parallels to that 1946 team, which led the Majors in offense, scoring half a run per game more than anyone else, but were 9th of 16 teams in runs allowed. They lost the World Series to St. Louis, the team that allowed the fewest runs in baseball.

Then, as now, pitching wins. And that's where I'll start this preview. Because even though a great offense can win 100 regular season games, it's pitching that wins 11 postseason games.

The Sox rotation looks the same as last year. And it has just as many question marks. We can pretty much bank on Jon Lester to have an ERA below 3.50, and 16 to 20 wins. He's been the rock of the rotation, and one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball the last 3 seasons.

Then there's Buchholz. Call me negative, but him repeating his 2010 feats is not guaranteed. We've all sort of assumed he will once again register an ERA around 2.50 and win close to 20 games. Maybe he will. Even 17 wins and a 3.00 ERA would be excellent. But he's 26. He has one great season under his belt. He's still a question mark. Even though he's overshadowed by much larger question marks in the rotation.

15-10 record. 3.96 ERA. 23 homeruns. That's what Josh Beckett averages every 162 games in his career. Even I was a little stunned to see that. It's so below average. With the Red Sox, he's been 71-40 with a 4.29 ERA. And since 2008, he's been atrocious. It's gotten to the point that Beckett isn't much of a question mark anymore. He's a bad pitcher until proven otherwise.

Among qualifying pitchers, John Lackey had the 73rd lowest ERA in baseball last year. He did eat innings, but that's pretty much it. You can live with him as a #4 starter, but if Beckett doesn't have a good year, he's your #3. And if Buchholz falters, he's your #2. And that's an alarming thought.

Then there's Daisuke. If any other pitcher won 18 games their sophomore season, then was repeatedly injured, struggled when healthy, and averaged 96 walks per full season, we'd be talking about sending him to Pawtucket. So what makes Daisuke so special? I just don't have a good feeling about Daisuke in 2011. Even when healthy, even when at his best, he doesn't go deep into games. His 18 win season was coupled with 167.2 innings pitched. 90 pitchers managed to surpass that mark in 2010.

Sorry folks, but the rotation is too vulnerable, and too dependent on all the stars aligning. Actually, it's dependant on time travel. If Buchholz is the same as he was in 2010, if Beckett is the same as he was in 2007, if Daisuke is the same as 2008, if Lackey is the same as he was in 2007 and in another city....

But it's 2011.

Thankfully, the bullpen looks quite a bit better than last year. The Sox blew the 4th most saves in baseball last year. And with shaky starting pitching, the bullpen will be worked hard in 2011.

Papelbon is still the closer. And even though he's not as elite as he used to be, he's still good enough. It'd be tough to find an improvement over him, but it won't be hard to find a replacement.

Daniel Bard has impressed as a set-up man, with a 1.11 WHIP in 124 career relief innings. Bard and Papelbon represent a quality 8th and 9th inning tandem. But they can't be overworked. They need help.

Bobby Jenks is a possible option. That's what the Sox did to this bullpen: added options. They signed a number of guys, hoping that one or two would work out as reliable set-up men. In the dice game that is relief pitching, this is a viable strategy to build a quality bullpen.

But Jenks is coming off a bad year. And he's gotten progressively worse since 2007. You never know with relievers, but it's hard to imagine that trend changing.

I'm much more optimistic about Dan Wheeler, who's pitched with success in the AL East. He's 33, but has 530 appearances under his belt. He'll wind up as the secondary set-up guy alongside Bard.

Wakefield will be a mop up man and spot starter. Doubront will be used against lefties.

The rest of the bullpen will be a revolving door of arms. Maybe one will be reliable enough to be a 6th inning man, or the type of guy that's brought in when the Sox are down 2 runs in the 7th.

Overrall, the bullpen isn't great, but it's no longer a liability. The rotation, however, is very suspect. So much needs to happen for it to work. And so much can go wrong for it to fail. I don't see Beckett winning more than 15 games. I don't see Daisuke throwing more than 180 innings. I see Buchholz having a good-not-great year. I don't see Lackey doing much better than he did in 2010.

But the offense should be able to make up for these shortcomings. At least in the regular season.

-The Commodore

The Red Sox' Pitchers

The Sox' owners heard the outcry from the masses, and acquired some serious, marquee talent last week. The finally went out and got guys you've heard of, guys that will appear on fantasy teams, true stars. They added a slugging first baseman, and a fleet-footed outfielder. These are likely the biggest off-season acquisitions since the Sox traded for Josh Beckett in November of '05.

Speaking of Beckett, I want to talk about pitching. The Red Sox offense has improved tremendously, and should be more consistent, more exciting, and will contend to lead the Majors in runs scored. And while I love the acquisitions, I can't quite jump on the bandwagon that's been fully loaded the last week.

What about pitching?

Well at the top, the Sox have Buchholz and Lester. Our most reliable pitchers are 25 and 26, respectively. Our rocks are 25 and 26. The hopes of the rotation rest on guys who are 25 and 26.

Buchholz was 2nd in the AL in ERA. He won 17 games, and emerged as an All-Star talent. But he also goes into 2011 with only one good year on his track record. I'm not predicting doom and gloom for Buchholz, but I don't think we can just assume he'll have a similarly outstanding year. We've all sort of taken for granted that he will.

Lester also esteemed himself, with 19 wins and a 3.25 ERA. His numbers don't pop as much as Buchholz's, but he's got a fuller history of success. In each of the last 3 seasons, his ERA has been below 3.50, he's won at least 15 games, and pitched at least 200 innings. He's as solid a #2 starter as you'll find.



Then there's John Lackey, whose numbers are more than respectable for a #5 guy. He led the Sox in innings. I'm fine with him in the #5 spot. So long as he's the ONLY #5 pitcher on this team. And that's the problem. We really have no idea what to expect from Beckett and Daisuke. They too might perform like #5 pitchers.

Apart from 2007, when he vied for the Cy Young, Beckett has been disastrous for the Sox. He outright sucked in 2006 and 2008. He was off-and-on in 2009, spinning gems one day, then dropping turds 4 days later. And in 2010, one could argue that he was the worst regular starting pitcher in baseball.

"He can't possibly be that bad again." That's the argument I keep hearing about Beckett. And that may be true. But his track record suggests that he won't be very good, either. And frankly, he CAN be that bad again.

Then there's Matsuzaka. Who is this guy? Is there anything about him that's predictable or regular? Will he be healthy? Does the team know if he'll be healthy? Does he even keep in touch with the team about his off-season training?



Since 2008, when he was brilliant, he's been a mess. When he is healthy, he walks the world, and needs 120 pitches to survive 6 innings of work. Perhaps he'll redeem himself in 2011. But I'm afraid the best I see him being is a middle of the road #3 guy. Even when he is on his game, his short outings tax the bullpen far too much.

Speaking of the bullpen, the Sox have one of the leakiest in the game. They blew 22 Saves last year, the 4th most in baseball. Think about that. 22 times, the Sox had a lead late in a game, and then lost it. And that starts with Papelbon, who set a career high in Blown Saves last year, with 8. He also set a career high in ERA (3.90) and WHIP (1.27). He's not a bad closer, but he's not Mariano Jr. And there are a number of closers that are on his level.



At least he and Bard are good. After that, there's nothing but torture.

Building a bullpen is hard to do. It can also be very easy. Most of it seems to be dumb luck. There are very few "premium" middle-relievers in this world. Those that excel become closers. Most have 2 or 3 very good years, then get figured out. In other words, Mike Timlin is not walking through that door.



The best thing to do is what the Sox used to try with their rotation: sign 3 to 5 has-beens/never-was-its, and hope that 1 or 2 don't suck.

In a rare bit of optimism, I think the offense will help the bullpen by putting it in fewer crucial situations. So there will be less opportunities for it to cost the Sox games.

I also don't want to come off as too negative. With the lineup the Sox have, and the few good pitchers they have, there's no reason for them to not make the playoffs. They should win 93 to 98 games, which is very good. And certainly an improvement over last year. They should whip teams like Baltimore, which they failed to do in 2010.

Unfortunately, pitching wins in the playoffs. The Giants and Rangers showed that. The Sox showed it in '07 and '04. And I don't think the Sox have the arms to get the job done in October and November. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Beckett and Daisuke will return to '07 and '08 form, respectively. Maybe someone unexpected will emerge as a hero in the postseason, much like Derek Lowe did in 2004. But I've never been one to be hopeful for hope's sake. I'm Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh.



-The Commodore