Divisional Round Breakdown

Ravens at Steelers

Arguably the two toughest teams in the NFL will square off at Heinz field in Pittsburgh, at 4:30 Saturday afternoon. No two teams have the familiarity that these two divisional foes share. Just three points have decided five out of the last seven meetings between the two AFC north powerhouses.

The Steelers have not lost a game at Heinz field in nearly a month. It is a difficult place to play on a warm September afternoon, it is exponentially more difficult in January when the stakes are high and the temperature drops to chilling lows. However, Baltimore is not afraid of cold weather, nor the confines of Heinz field. Having defeated the Steelers at Heinz already this season (albeit without Roethlisberger). The Ravens face a much more challenging task this time around, beat Big Ben in Pittsburgh… Something they have not done since 2006.

The Steelers love to get Rashard Mendenhall going early and often. The third year running back out of Illinois has certainly proven worthy of his first round selection back in 2008. Mendenhall rushed for nearly 1,3000 yards and scored 13 touchdowns this season. What makes him so dynamic is his ability run inside and out. He can power through defenders to pick up tough yardage as well as bust out a big play that can shift momentum in a heartbeat. Stopping Mendenhall will be a difficult task for the Baltimore front seven.

Even if the Ravens can contain Mendenhall, they still have to deal with a plethora of options that Roethlisberger has it his disposal. Chief among them, speedy receiver, Mike Wallace. Wallace led Pittsburgh in receptions, targets, receiving yards and touchdowns this season. The most staggering statistic for Wallace is his 21 yards per catch average, the highest in the NFL (min. 50 rec.). He had 26 catches for 20+ yards this season. Translation, once he gets the ball in the open field… Look out. Aside from Wallace, Baltimore has to find some way to deny Roethlisberger’s security blanket, tight end Heath Miller, from getting the ball on third down. Miller was held in check in the most recent meeting between these two teams (1 reception, 9 yards). Also, feisty receiver, Hines Ward, cannot be overlooked in this game. He’s a killer when the game is on the line and always seems to bring his level of play up a notch in big games.

Defensively, the Steelers have to force Joe Flacco to beat them. Their top priority will be to limit running back, Ray Rice. Rice was stymied in their last matchup, netting just 50 all purpose yards. While Rice is able to bring quickness to the Baltimore backfield, veteran Willis Mcgahee, can bring the boom. Mcgahee looked very impressive in a limited role against Kansas City last weekend. He’s the perfect change of pace back for Baltimore offense. The Steelers get a huge boost with the return of All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu. Considered one of the biggest game changers in all the NFL, Polamalu knows how to step it up in the post season. As always when these two teams play, whichever defense makes the big play typically wins the game. With big time players like Polamalu and linebackers, Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison, Baltimore knows that one turnover could cost them the game.

The Ravens have rattled off four consecutive wins, all by 10 points or less. This is their type of game. They tend to excel in the physical, low scoring type of contests. For Baltimore, it all starts on defense.

With perhaps the best front seven in football, the Ravens were able to hold opponents to 94 rushing yards per game this season, good for 5th in the NFL. Up front, Haloti Ngata has elevated his play and is now considered among the elite defensive linemen in the league. Behind him, All-Pro linebacker Ray Lewis, who faced criticism earlier this year with regards to his age and perhaps having lost a step. The critics were answered when Lewis turned in one of his best seasons in recent years netting his 12th pro bowl appearance. In the final layer of defense, ball hawk Ed Reed leads a young secondary.

Despite just 4 losses on the season, the Ravens defense has cost them several times this season. They allowed Matt Ryan and the Falcons to come back in the fourth quarter despite Atlanta having only 1:14 seconds on the clock for their final possession. They also allowed 10 unanswered points against Pittsburgh, giving up their 4 point lead in the fourth quarter. A month ago, they surrendered 15 fourth quarter points to the hapless Houston Texans before returning an interception for a touchdown in overtime to save face. These are mistakes that they cannot afford to make against a polished Steelers team.

Offensively, they need to establish a ground game. In two games this season Ray Rice has been effectively shut down by Pittsburgh. It is imperative to get him going early and use Mcgahee (as I mentioned earlier) to change the pace. Once they are able to pick up first downs on the ground, it opens the play action game. The Ravens are an elite play action team and are nearly impossible to stop once they get going.

The addition of Anquan Boldin has certainly paid dividends for the Baltimore’s passing game. Putting a superstar wide receiver on the opposite side of the sure handed Derek Mason allows Baltimore to throw the ball down the field. Something they have been trying to do since they drafted big-armed quarterback, Joe Flacco, two years ago.

After a so-so start, Flacco turned it on December posting a 7/2 touchdown to interception ratio. He finished the season with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He set career highs in touchdown passes, passing yards, and quarterback rating. For the Ravens to win, Flacco will need to play mistake free football and avoid interceptions and strip sacks at all costs.

Look for a low scoring hard fought battle between two very physical teams. This is a great way to start off the divisional round, and hopefully will set the tone for the entire slate of games this weekend. Expect both defenses to play major roles in their teams’ success. Despite the Ravens inability to beat the Steelers at home with Roethlisberger at the helm, it seems as though they have all the right weapons to pull off the upset. Anquan Boldin is going to come up big in the clutch and the Ravens will be the first team into the conference championship Saturday evening.

Ravens 24 Steelers 23